Previous relevant blogs:
2014 Race Preview
2014 Race Report
2014 Full results
Bearing in mind that they were done on mountain bike courses rather than the current road bike course the following are only partly relevant, but still interesting in terms of development.
2013 Race Report
2012 Race Report
From reading all of those I seem to come out of Forres every year with a slower swim time than I expect going in. At least this time that won't come as a surprise. I have declared 6:00 mins for a 400m swim but I would have to have a perfect day to get that. My current PB is 6:25 from Alford, but that has more turns in it than a standard race. My current 25m pool PB is 6:37* from last year's Forres Novice. I have already gone very close to that during normal training swims in the middle of much longer sessions.
Year on year I have taken my Forres Swim time from 7:29 to 7:01 to 6:37, so it isn't unreasonable to think that another year of improvements will have brought me close to 6 mins. I suspect it is going to come down to how long I can keep tumble turning when I am trying to thrash along at full sprint pace. At Mondays pool session I managed a 200m rep in 3:09. With a load of race tricks to add on top of that I think I should go through in under 3 mins. Whether I can back that up with a second 200m is still up for grabs.
I can be slicker through T1. There are a couple of seconds to save here.
On the bike I only have last year to compare against as the previous races were on a different bike course. I took 26 minutes to get round. The fastest time was 24:40 so it doesn't look like there is much for me to gain here. But it is a less than 8 mile course which is not hilly or difficult for handling, so I should be looking at a 20mph average or better on the bike, unless the weather intervenes. That would mean coming in inside 24 minutes.
Based on what I have been doing for TT races lately I should be managing that. The Deeside TT on Tuesday night should have given me an idea of how hard I can push on the bike during a race that lasts just under an hour. Instead I am going to have to rely on my 10-mile TT data and the idea that I can't work quite that hard on the bike, and still be able to run, but without any idea of how much less to push.
I doubt I can save much in T2. I could make T2 worse if I decide not to wear socks in T1.
The run is the same as it has been for the last 3 years. My times have always been somewhere in the 15-minute bracket. That is still likely to come out about the same. If I can find a run at the 6 min/mile pace that I would need to colck a faster time then that is a sign that I haven't worked hard enough on the swim and bike.
From last year's top-7, only myself and the kid that wins it each year is on the current entry list. He is now 18, which may still keep him out of my age-group. If he hasn't improved much then he should give me a good target as he is a slightly better swimmer and was a slightly better cyclist, so if I can get close to him by T2 I will be really pleased. I do then expect him to run away from me though. The race is only half full and they will take entries on the day so the field could get much tougher yet.
*The official result of 6:59 includes getting out of the water and out across the car park to the timing mats.
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