Here is my race report from 2014 and here is my race preview from 2014.
The weather for Sunday looks pretty good as I write this, but that could easily change.
On the swim, the extended loch and reverse direction make the course slower than previous years. I can counter some of that by being faster than previous years, but I don't think I can make up the two minutes I would need to in order to reach my annual target of a 26 minute 1500m swim. A more realistic target would be to take a minute off last years time and be out of the water in 27 minutes.
On the bike I feel like I am riding better than last year but for some reason it isn't really telling in races. Over this distance I am hoping that my general fitness will pay off and I can make my better cycling training pay off. The road surface has a temporary coating on a long section where normally I am fairly aggressive and I simply won't be able to attack it as I would like. This is going to cost me a chunk of time. Ideally the wind direction is currently predicted to be a headwind for that section which should slow everyone down and cancel out the surface conditions a little.
Last year I rode 1 hour 22 and missed the target I had set of going under 1 hour 20. I am going to put that 1 hour 20 target back in again this year, but after the race I am going to look at the breakdown of sections and possibly make an allowance for any lost time to the poorly surfaced sections.
The run may be a completely different course this year. As I type the course map still says that the race will be held on the traditional course so I am going to base my plan on that. The rumour-mill says that will change between now and Sunday to a completely new course. If that happens I won't be able to put any sort of sensible prediction on my time.
So on the traditional course I have run 58 mins, 54 mins, 53 mins for the last 3 attempts. All of these are terrible. I am probably not running any better than last year, but hopefully I can avoid some of the other problems I had during last years run section. I should be able to get round in 50 minutes on this route. I should be able to do that easily on any revised route. Edit - The race manual is out and the run route has changed. Completely new route soon idea how my time will compare.
Last year I set a target total time of 2 hrs 45 and actually did 2 hrs 46. I am going to stick in the 2 hrs 45 target again. If I was to actually hit each of the other targets, and allowing about 3 minutes for transitions I should actually be in somewhere close to 2 hrs 40 mins so an overall 2:45 gives me nearly 5 minutes of wiggle room to allow for things like weather and road surfaces.
Targets
Swim < 27 mins
Bike < 1 hr 20 mins
Run < 50 mins
Total < 2 hrs 45 mins
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